NFL Week 14 Picks

For those of you who don't know, I love gambling. Even when I don't have money to risk betting on games (which, of course, is pretty often in my case), I always make sure I check the lines and odds on games in all sports, so as something new for this blog, I'll throw my picks up here. Week 14 is pretty late in the season to start doing this, you are probably thinking. Well, considering this blog is barely more than a week old, what better time to start than now? Although this is technically being posted early Sunday morning because I got a late jump, all lines are current as of Saturday.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS
I won't lie. I totally said earlier this week that I would have picked Indy, and I totally would have gotten burned by that stupid backdoor cover.


Raiders (+3.5) over JAGUARS
I flip-flopped a lot on this pick. On one hand, the Raiders are impossible to figure out and it would be typical of them for a let-down after last week's upset in San Diego. On the other hand, I just have a hunch that the Jags are due for a loss, especially when we can all see the Colts inevitably coming back and eventually leapfrogging them for the division. Plus I think both teams are going to run the ball very effectively here and it could come down to the final minutes.


STEELERS (-8.5) over Bengals
Yes, I know that Cincinnati usually plays them close, and if anything this has backdoor cover written all over it, but the Steelers are really good and the Bengals are really bad. Simple analysis like that can often get people in trouble with big spreads, but I'll take my chances here anyway.


Patriots (-3) over BEARS
I thought the Pats were the best team in football before they obliterated the Jets. What I do like here, though, is for this game to hit the over of 38 points.


Browns (PK) over BILLS
I'm worried that Cleveland tends to play down to their opponents and that Jake Delhomme is really, really horrible. A great fantasy play is to just start whatever defense is playing him because he almost guarantees that you'll get touchdown points from them. I just don't trust Buffalo enough, and Hillis should be able to run all over the place.


Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Green Bay should score enough points in this game to put it out of reach by mid-way of the third quarter. I kind of like the under at 46.5, because I can see this game being 31-10.


PANTHERS (+7.5) over Falcons
This game just smells of one of those "much closer than you think" games. The funny thing is that if Atalanta is going to cover, we'll probably know by the end of the first quarter.


REDSKINS (+1) over Buccaneers
Who knows what to make of Washington from one week to the next. This game is more about the Bucs continuing to come back down to earth in the wins-loss department. Feels like the Skins win a close one in the final minutes or in overtime here.


SAINTS (-9) over Rams
From a lot of the articles I've been reading this week, the Rams seem to be a trendy pick here, which scares me. Admittedly, I do like the direction that St. Louis is going in and I think Bradford leads them to the division. But I think people are overvaluing them and they are playing the Saints, on the road, who have been playing excellent football. Just not sure if the Rams are ready for this game yet, but for non-gambling purposes, this game is truly a huge test for them moving forward.


Seahawks (+5) over 49ERS
I don't trust Seattle on the road one bit, but I'll take five points over Alex Smith against anyone. Two other things I like about this game: under 41.5 total points and Seattle's money line (+$195). This is how little confidence I have in Alex Smith.


Dolphins (+5.5) over JETS
Yes, I'm taking the "these games are always close" theory on this one; if the Jets cover, then tip your cap. Also, I love this game to go under 39.


Broncos (-4) over CARDINALS
Arizona is just flat out awful, and is starting its second rookie at quarterback this season. I feel like I like a lot of unders this week, but I can't see the Cards scoring enough in their position to make this game go over 43.5 points.


CHARGERS (-9.5) over Chiefs
Putting last week's debacle aside, this is the type of game San Diego always wins, and whatever opponent they are battling for the division keels over and dies. Throw in Kansas City being forced to start a quarterback who is 0-9 in his career, and I'd be stunned if the Chargers didn't win this game by more than 20.


Eagles (-3.5) over COWBOYS
My instinct is telling me to pick Dallas because they are playing really inspired football now that Wade Phillips is no longer around, and you should rarely go against your instinct, but I just think Philly is really good. No disrespect to the Falcons, but I still feel the Eagles are the best team in the NFC.

VIKINGS (+3) over Giants
Moved to Monday night because of weather conditions, which may help the Giants get over some lag being stuck at the airport on a connecting flight this weekend. Still, all the travel has to play some role here, plus Minnesota historically plays well against the Giants. I like the under (which is weird because I',m generally not an under kind of guy) again in this game if I'm going to bet anything, which sits at 43.


Ravens (-3) over TEXANS
No way the Ravens lose this game if the North is going to come down to the wire, which we know it is, right? Don't feel totally confident about it, though.


Some good teaser options: STEELERS (-2.5) allows a Pittsburgh field goal win to for you, or if you really think this game is going to be close, then Bengals (+14.5) is a really nice number. Also, consider Packers (-0.5), Falcons, (-1.5), Seahawks (+11), and TEXANS (+9).